Obama's Dilemma
After forcing through health care legislation, the question is what should the Dems do next.
Normally, this being an election year, the White House and Congressional leaders would take it easy, offering up simple, left/populist measures that would make the Repubs who oppose them look bad.
But there is another line of reasoning. Right now the Dems enjoy huge leads in Congress, and it's unlikely they'll be this wide after the 2010 elections. So this could be the last chance to get through ambitious items such as cap-and-trade, card check and comprehensive immigration reform. So the question is which way should the White House, which is not facing reelection, go?
Ironically, the more certain they are they'll do poorly in November because of how they pushed through unpopular laws, the better the argument is that now's the time to push through more unpopular laws.
posted by LAGuy @ 12:27 AM
8 Comments:
Unless I am missing something, there is little reason behind that second line of reasoning. Reconciliation can only be used once per year, and the congress already shot their 2010 bullet. There are now 59 Democrat (and Independent caucusing) senators. Nothing will be "pushed through" without at least minimal bipartisan cooperation. Allowing the Republican caucus to successfully filibuster unpopular bills would be remarkably foolish.
What do I win?
A lot of major legislation has been passed through the Senate without 60 guaranteed votes from your party. In fact, that's usually how it works.
How it usually works and how it will work this year are two very different standards. The Republican leadership has been crystal clear that there will be no cooperation with the Democrats post-Obamacare. Could they theoretically peel off Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, Scott Brown or what's his name from Delaware with a highly popular idea? Sure. But LAGuy's premise is something unpopular. Ain't gonna happen.
Another consideration weighing on the Obama Administration. Even though they are not up for reelection this year, state legislatures and governorships all over the country are. And it will be these state organs that accomplish the next redistricting.
I think the Democrats in general will try not to offend any more independents. There will be no cap & trade this year. There will be no tax increases (which means either there will be no action on the 2002 tax rate cuts and elimination of the estate tax, or there will be a stop-gap bill to extend the status quo (or 2009) into 2011).
No tax increases? Of course there'll be tax increases. That's what Democrats live for. They just won't call them tax increases, or will say it's only for rich people.
Forget all that- Obama will pick Cass Sunstein for Justice Stevens' seat on the Supreme Court
"An honest, humane, and respectful person, he enjoys debating and writing with friends across the political spectrum. It also doesn't hurt that he writes beautifully*."
—Eric Posner, University of Chicago law professor"
*F U, Dad
Cass Sunstein will be on the Supreme Court the day Obama comes out for tax cuts.
Obama has already come out for tax cuts- just not for the people anon above likes.
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