Predictions For 2011
I just discussed last year's predictions. Time for this year's. I invite readers, and the other Guys, to make their own.
American Politics:
Obama will not compromise on his values and major legislation will be difficult. There will be intense differences over environmental regulation. No major new initiatives in general will be passed (though everyday financial deals will be struck). Obama, and Harry Reid, will blame any problems on Republican obstructionism.
Republicans will not successfully cut the budget except in the most cosmetic ways.
Obama will not get a chance to nominate a Supreme Court Justice in 2011. (If he does, the Republicans will attempt to block the nominee through filibuster.)
And the end of the year, Obama's popularity will be around 50%. The Congress's popularity will rise as well, but not go that high.
The Congress will not have much luck chipping away at Obamacare. I realize this won't happen this year, but the Supreme Court will not find any part of the law unconstitutional.
There will be no successful major terrorist attack on U.S. soil.
The Tea Party will continue to strongly affect Republican politics.
Sarah Palin will not choose to run for President. (Neither will Hillary Clinton. And Joe Biden will not leave.)
International Politics:
The Euro will be ailing, but will survive.
There will be at least one major terrorist attack in Europe.
There will be no progress in Israeli/Palestinian talks.
The Economy:
By the end of the year, unemployment will drop below 9%, and possibly below 8%.
Housing prices will not rise this year. Gas prices will.
Right now the Dow is around 11500. Will it end the year below 11000, above 12000, or in between? I predict it'll be above 12000.
Sports:
Oregon will beat Auburn in the BCS.
The Patriots will win the Super Bowl.
2011 will be a better year for Michigan than the last three. Coach Rod will lose his job. (I wrote this before the Gator Bowl.)
Popular Culture:
American Idol will not be the #1 show on TV.
Very hard to read the tea leaves for this year's Oscars. Best Picture: The Social Network. Best Director: David Fincher will beat Darren Aronofsky, Danny Boyle and the Coens. Best Actor: Colin Firth will beat James Franco. Best Actress: Annette Bening will beat Natalie Portman. Best Supporting Actor: Geoffrey Rush wil beat Christian Bale, Jeremy Renner and Mark Ruffalo. Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld. Best Adapted Screenplay The Social Network. Best Original Screenplay The King's Speech.
posted by LAGuy @ 12:18 AM
3 Comments:
My predictions will be bold because it doesn't matter if I'm wrong:
AMERICAN POLITICS
Democrats in the Senate and Republicans in the House will find some significant deficit reduction legislation to pass - and President Obama will veto it. Probably because NEA will face massive or total defunding. Congress will not be able to override the veto and some stop gap legislation will keep the government running at 2010 spending levels.
California, with new Governor Brown running herd on the state legislature, will slash spending. Nevertheless, several municipalities will default in California, and probably in a few other states (Illinos).
Sarah Palin will remain uncommitted on running for President, as will Hilary Clinton.
INTERNATIONAL POLITICS
Spain will default on obligations, causing a real crisis in the Euro. As a result Germany and France will come up with some way to back out of the Euro and recover the Mark and Franc (maybe a dual currency regime).
Kim Jung Il will either die or initiate another attack on S. Korea and be ousted from power through Chinese and internal military pressure. N. and S. Korea will begin serious re-unification talks thereafter.
Fidel Castro will die - nothing will change in Cuba.
US ECONOMY
Unemployment will remain stubbornly at 9% or so.
Stagflation will set in, with gas prices leading the way to a CPI increase of 3 to 5%.
DOW will crash again sometime during the year below 10,000, but will recover into 11,000s before year end.
SPORTS
San Francisco will not repeat in the World Series (okay that one is not that bold). The Phillies will return to the World Series and beat the Yankees.
POP CULTURE
Harry Potter VIII will fail mightily at the box office as movie goers are unable to grasp the meaning of the finale.
Interesting predictions. We'll find out next year, except for the last one. It is not possible for a Harry Potter film to fail. All seven so far have been huge moneymakers. The worst that could happen is a relative disappointment that makes tons of money.
Some thoughts based on indigestion this morning:
-Just as perceived and real excesses of the Dems in Congress propelled the partial Republican victory in 2010, the perceived and real excesses of the new Rep reps will propel Obama to a narrow re-election in 2012. (these elections are always more about voting wrongdoers out that putting someone in- even Obama's election in 08 was premised on not wanting Bush/Clinton/Palin)
-Red Sox win everything and become Evil Empire Part Deux (sorry-going for something that sounds elitist)
-The economy slowly improves during 2011 but the nation pays no attention due the various crises du jour whether it be Chandra Levy, Tiger Woods & Hos or BP Oil Spill variety which news orgs will turn to based on the complete fatigue with politics.
-Takeover of the Tea Party by the social conservatives (some think this has already happened)
- This is easy- naughty navy videos becomes a part of the culture was for a few weeks but then is forgotten. (Libs hope Conservatives defend them, Cons hope Libs go after them- its the kind of issue where the loudest true believers will turn off the most.
-Sarah Palin does not run but gins up attacks on Specific Dem targets- both issues and candidates and will have some success and this makes the Rep hierarchy very happy and SP very wealthy. The now irrelevant Anne Coulter may be reduced to making "sexy thrillers" or a daytime talk show on your higher numbered cable stations.
-Terrorists continue to attack people that are generally unfamiliar to us so will get reported after the "news you can use" on the nightly broadcasts for old folks who still watch them.
-Those private contractors doing airport security will be as bad as the TSA and some crazy will get something through and we'll be forced to listen to weeks of name-calling resulting in additional security theater.
-Maybe not in 2011, but John Stewart will pull a Frank Rich and go from entertainment into full-time commentating but will be much better at it than Frank (this of course can be said about almost all commentators).
-Ebola comes back-Hot Zone books and movies re-issued
-In some state somewhere during the year, the daily number will be 324.
-Freaky weather continues. Everyone claims it means or doesn't mean something different.
-Sarko and Carla Bruni either divorce or release a sex tape.
-Silvio Berlusconi will be featured in a sex tape (this may be old news)
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