Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Predictions From 2013

It's the end of the year, so let's look back and see how well I guessed what would happen.

Domestic Politics:

I guessed Chuck Hagel wouldn't be Secretary of Defense.  Got that wrong.  I guess I thought the Dems would put principle over party--always a mistake with politicians

I said Congress would pass no significant gun legislation.  Correct. Wasn't that long ago some people thought it was inevitable.

I said they wouldn't pass immigration reform, even though it seemed to be at the top of their agenda.  Correct.

I said there'd be no new Supreme Court Justice chosen. Correct.

I said the Court would find against affirmative action. I believe they punted, so I got that wrong.

I said the Court would punt on same-sex marriage, which I believe they did.  Correct.

I said the Court would defer to Congress regarding FISA courts.  I don't even recall if they had any cases about this.

I said the Court would get rid of Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act. Correct.

International Politics:

I said Assad would fall.  Wrong--if anything, he's stronger.  I said Morsi would remain in power.  Wrong--the military removed him after protests.  So in general, I'm way off in that region.

I said Castro or Chavez or both wouldn't survive.  Correct.

I said Angela Merkel would continue as Europe's leader. I think that's right.

I said Putin would remain in power, but be weaker.  I'm not sure how you measure that, but I think I was wrong.

The Economy:

I said by year's end unemployment would be below 7%.   Looks like I'm wrong.

I said the Dow would be over 13500 by the end of the year.  Correct, but it's so much higher than that this feels wrong.


I said Alabama would have an easy time with Notre Dame in the BCS bowl. Not the bravest prediction, but correct.

I said the Wolverines would beat the Buckeyes.  Considering how strongly the Buckeyes were favored, and how close it was, even though I got this wrong I feel like I'm right.

I said the Yankees wouldn't make the World Series. They didn't even make the playoffs.

Popular Culture:

I said Community would be canceled. Wrong. It gets one more short season (at least, and probably at most), with Dan Harmon back in charge.

I said critics would love the final season of Breaking Bad.  Right.

I said Game Of Thrones would continue to gain fans and critical approval.  I believe this is correct.

I said no major character would die on Mad Men.  I think this is right.

I said Downton Abbey's third season would be considered greater than its second. I'm not entirely sure, but I think this is wrong.

For the Oscars, I called Argo as best film, Daniel Day-Lewis as Best Actor and Jennifer Lawrence as Best Actress.  Missed on Best Supporting Actor and Actress, however.  I also called Best Editor for Argo and Best Foreign Film for Amour.

I said Psy would not have another hit.  Who's Psy?


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