Saturday, October 04, 2014

Start The Countdown

Pundits have been talking all year about how the election will turn out, but regulars folks haven't paid that much attention.  Now there's now exactly a month to go and those stragglers are getting ready to make up their minds.  So what can we say?

Not much.  It's fun to play with the interactive map, but there are so many tossups it's hard to make a serious call.  Yes, the GOP will pick up some Senate seats (and that's the race--ignore the rest), but taking it back is a very different question. At present, most prognosticators are saying Republicans have an edge, if not necessarily a huge one.

Not me. I still think it's more likely not to happen. This is based on a number of factors. Mostly polls, but, with all the close races, also on the fact that Republicans have been underperforming lately so it's hard to give them the benefit of the doubt, and the atmosphere isn't quite what it was in 2010.

So here are my odds.  Rather than go state by state, I'll go number by number.  They're actually too linear, but why get technical now?

Odds the GOP will gain at least three net seats: 95%

Odds the GOP will gain at least four net seats: 75%

Odds the GOP will gain at least five net seats: 55%

Odds the GOP will gain at least six (the magic number to take back Senate) net seats: 35%

Odds the GOP will gain at least seven net seats: 15%

Not really taking much of a chance. First, these are the odds as of today--I reserve the right to change them completely as new information comes along.  But really, already I know I can say, unless the GOP gains less than three seats or more than seven, that the results were well within what I expected.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here's hoping whomever the winners, they throw off the antiquated notion of party loyalty

4:19 AM, October 04, 2014  
Blogger ColumbusGuy said...

Is it antiquated? It seems to be thriving. Is there any predictor that's better?

2:26 PM, October 04, 2014  

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