Thursday, January 01, 2015

Prediction For 2015

A new year and new predictions:

Domestic Politics:

President Obama will veto more legislation than he did in his first six years in office.

Congress will not pass significant immigration reform.

The Justice Department will not back down on demanding lower due process requirements in sexual assault cases on campus.

No new Supreme Court Justice will be seated.

The Supreme Court will declare the Federal government may subsidize any health care exchange no matter what its source.

Elizabeth Warren will decide to run.  (I should add eight years ago I suggested Barack Obama run as he'd never have a better chance.  Same for Warren. Not that she's the same candidate that Obama was--heck, Obama isn't the same candidate Obama was--but with the changes in demographics, maybe McGovern can win this time around.)

At the end of the year there'll be no clear, odds-on frontrunner among the GOP for 2016.

International Politics:

ISIS will be weaker at the end of the year.

Iran will not announce they have an nuclear weapon.

Cuba will not have major reform, and will remain as poor as ever.

There will be a major terror attack in Europe.

The Economy:

The Dow will be over 18000 at the end of the year, but below 19000.

By year's end unemployment will be between 5% and 5.4%

Gas prices will continue to average under three dollars a gallon.


Alabama will win the BCS bowl.

The Detroit Tigers will not take their division.

The Michigan Wolverines will do better in 2015 than 2014 (they better).

A team that finished the season 12-4 will win the Super Bowl (a good bet, but hardly guaranteed).

Popular Culture:

After a couple years of no one caring, people will say a sad farewell to Mad Men and it will once again be nominated for a Best Drama Emmy.  (A brave guess, since once you're out that's usually it.)

On season five of Game Of Thrones, The Hound will not be dead (though we may not find out either way).  We will not find out this season who Jon Snow's real parents are.  Stannis Baratheon will not, even temporarily, sit on the Iron Throne.  At least two Westerners will meet for the first time in the East.

Birdman will receive the most above-the-line Oscar nominations.  Patricia Arquette will be Best Supporting Actress, J.K. Simmons will be Best Supporting Actor, Julianne Moore will be Best Actress (toughest category to call) and Michael Keaton will win for Best Actor.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

DG didn't do too bad, did he?

4:20 PM, January 01, 2015  
Blogger LAGuy said...

Hopefully he'll tell us.

9:28 PM, January 01, 2015  
Blogger LAGuy said...

Okay, I'm already wrong about Alabama. Guess it'll be Oregon.

11:55 AM, January 02, 2015  
Blogger LAGuy said...

Also guess it'll be a tough year.

11:56 AM, January 02, 2015  
Anonymous Denver Guy said...

Sorry for the delay - just back from excapingthe big chill in Denver.

Anyway, my 2014 predictions weren't too shabby:


S.Ct. will uphold Michigan bar to racial preferences. (Schuette v Coalition case). Will be 6-3 or 7-2.

100% with a 6-2 decision, though didn't realize Kagan would recuse.

S.CT will strike down President Obama's "recess appointments" during a Senate bathroom break - 5-4 as it is a pretty politically charged decision.

50% with a 9-0 decission. I overestimated the political loyalties of the liberal wing. Or perhaps underestimated how obvious this decision was.


Obamacare will contnue to experience major problems as the "back-end" doesn't work any better than the front end did, and will remain below 50% popularity. Obama will hover around 40% approval all year (within 4 points up or down).

100% - And I think the worst is yet to come for Obamacare, though we will never be rid of it now.

Wendy Davis will not become new Governor of Texas.

100% - Pretty easy in hindsight.

John Kasich will fend off primary challenge and then win reelection as Gov. in Ohio.

100% - and not easy to predict a year ago.

Scott Walker will win reelection (again) in Wisconsin, and so will Pat Quinn in Illinois.

100% - and also a tough call a year ago.


Mugabe will die in office in 2014 in Zimbabwe.

0% - Rats - this guy needs to move on.

Venezuela's hyper-inflation will accelerate to near 80%.

75% - We are at about 63% inflation now - I don't know if that really counts as "near 80%".

NYC Mayor Deblasio will enjoy warm relations with the press and remain popular throughout the year (over 50% approval).

75% - I was good until mid-Dec. when he plummeted below 50% (now at about 47% and dropping).


I'm not sure about much in the Oscars, but I'll go with Sandra Bullock - Best Actress for Gravity. And Cuaron as director too.

50% - On the bright side, I got two copies of the Gravity DVD for Christmas.

Downton Abbey 4th season will be considered a major disappointment.

100% - I don't know anyone still watching Downton. We quit when the season opener introduced rape as a story-line in the genteel manor house.


Gotta go with Broncos win the Superbowl.

0% - Whaaaa!

Hope I'm not disqualified if I need a few more days to come up with my predictions for 2015.

10:45 AM, January 06, 2015  
Blogger LAGuy said...

You did a good job--better than I did, I'd say.

We'll be glad to hear your predictions a few days late, but it would be great if you could put them in the comments here before this post disappears from the scroll on Thursday.

I think Obamacare can still die, and I don't think it's that hard. The first two steps have already been taken--the GOP winning the House and Senate. All that's left is to win the White House, and I think the Republicans have a better than 40% chance in 2016. If they can do that, and hold the Congress, I give them a decent chance of shooting enough holes in Obamacare so that it'll be at best a shell of its former self.

8:12 PM, January 06, 2015  
Anonymous Denver Guy said...


Sad to note that LG already has one correct prediction for 2015 (French terrorist attack). Here go mine for the rest of the year - mostly based on what's on my mind these days:


Though LA Guy thinks Obamacare could still be dismantled, I'm afraid even the King v. Burwell case couldn't do it. I'm going to predict that the S.Ct. will hold 5/4 that the text means what it says, but that will only give the Republicans an opening to force President Obama to accept significant changes to the law in exchange for fixing the typos. Too much has been invested for the Republicans to repeal the whole thing. They will gut the mandate and hope the program withers on the vine (it will become an expensive gov't program that does a fairly poor job at getting insurance to the needy and nobody else).

Of perhaps greater importance for free speech and right to work advocates, I predict a 7-2 victory for Abercrombie & Fitch against the EEOC, in the case where they wouldn't employ a Muslim woman in their fancy shmancy store because she insisted on wearing a head scarf. This seems obvious to me (employers have a right to control their own image, especially in retail), so maybe it will be unanimous in support of the 10th Circuit ruling.


Congress will pass a Keystone Pipeline bill, and the President will veto it, and the House will have the votes to overturn, but Elizabeth Warren will lead a massive push to prevent the Senate from overturning the veto, laying the groundwork for her run for President.

By the end of 2015, it will be clear that Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, John Kasich and Marco Rubio are the front runners for the Republican nomination, though none will dominate. I'm predicting that Huckabee and Romney will decline to run and Ted Cruz will not get much traction.

Harry Reid will announce his retrement before the end of the year, to make room for a new face in NV.


My bold prediction - the leftist party will take power in Greece, and by the end of the year, Greece will be in the process of leaving the EU.

Easy prediction - with 2 convictions in it's first 12 years of existence, I predict there will be no International Criminal Court convictions at the Hague in 2015.

Venezuela President Maduro will either have imposed a dictatorship with marshall law, or he will be out as President by year end.

Russia will not annex eastern Ukraine, but an autonomous State will be created, nominally under the coontrol of Ukraine.


The Fed Funds Rate will be increased to .5% by year end.


Bronco's will get on the wrong bus and miss playing the Superbowl. Seriously, if I don't predict them to win the Superbowl, how stupid will I feel if they do?

And the Ravens will defeat the Patriots this weekend!

The Colorado Rockies will not win their division - Dodgers will repeat as NL West Division winners.


Star Wars VII will be the biggest blockbuster of 2015, breaking the $1B mark.

Jurasic World will disappoint at the box office(though I'm looking forward to it).

Walking Dead will get a Season 7 from AMC. With such a turnover in cast, they don't have to worry about actors getting tired of their roles, or demanding too much money to continue.

I have no Oscar predictions.

Happy New Year everyone!

3:17 PM, January 07, 2015  
Anonymous Denver Guy said...

I forgot on politics - Rand Paul will be in the running for Republican nomination as well.

3:19 PM, January 07, 2015  
Blogger LAGuy said...

Glad to have you on record. I'm not sure if the Greek thing is so bold. And is a season 7 of Walking Dead even a prediction at this point?

4:53 PM, January 07, 2015  

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