Thursday, December 31, 2015

Predictions From 2015

Time to look over my predictions for 2015.  I don't think I did that badly.

Domestic Politics:

I said President Obama would veto more legislation this year than all his previous years combined.  I admit it was fairly safe since before 2015 Harry Reid prevented any bills the President wouldn't like from crossing his desk.

I said no significant immigration reform.  It may seem an easy call now, but there were quite a few Republicans calling for it a year ago, and the Democrats are panting for it.  (President Obama may have changed some of the rules unilaterally, but I was referring to legislation.)

I said the government will not back down from the pushback it's getting over lower due process standards on campus sexual assault cases.  All too true.

I said no new Supreme Court Justices.  Called it.

I said the Court will say the Federal government can subsidize any health care exchange and I was right.  (Wasn't I? It seems so long ago.)

I was wrong in guessing Elizabeth Warren would run for President.  All I can say is she blew her chance, but it's not over yet.  If Hillary has legal trouble, maybe she'll step in.  (Or is she simply happy with a cabinet position?)

I said by now there'd be no clear, odds-on frontrunner for the GOP. This is a tough call but I think I'm right.  "Odds-on" to me means a better than 50% chance of winning.  Yes, Trump is easily ahead in the polls, but he's also the most disliked candidate, so if support coalesces around an opponent Trump could easily lose.

International Politics:

I said ISIS will be weaker by now.  I'd say I was wrong.

I said Iran won't announce they have a nuclear weapon.  If they did I missed it.

I said Cuba won't have major reform and will remain poor. Apparently true, and why would they need reform now, anyway?

I said there will be a major terror attack in Europe.  No comment necessary.

The Economy:

I said the Dow would be over 18000 at this point, but below 19000.  I guess I got that half right.

I said unemployment would now be between 5% and 5.4%. Don't have this month's stats, but last month it was 5% so I'm giving it to myself.

I said the average gallon of gas would average under three dollars. It's so far under that amount that I'm not sure if I can say I called it.  The average is pretty close to two dollars nationwide (though in extra-expensive California it's about $2.70).


I said Alabama would win the BCS bowl.  Yeah, that didn't happen.

I said the Detroit Tigers wouldn't win their division.  They finished last--no need to overdo it, guys.

I said the Wolverines would do better in 2015--an easy enough call, but they really turned it around.

I said a 12-4 team would win the Super Bowl.  The Patriots fit the bill.

Popular Culture:

I said Mad Men, after being MIA for a couple years, would be nominated for Best Drama.   Whether it was for sentiment or quality, I got it right.

I said on Game Of Thrones the Hound would not be dead.  He was left for dead, but we have no idea.  I said we wouldn't find out who Jon Snow's parents are--right now we're just hoping he's alive.  I said Stannis wouldn't sit on the Iron Throne--he didn't even get close.  I said at least two Westerners will meet for the first time in the East--I think you can say Dany and the Imp hanging out fulfills that prophecy.

For the Oscars, I said Birdman would get the most above-the-line nominations.  It did, with Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Director and Best Original Screenplay.  I called Patricia Arquette for Best Supporting Actress, J.K. Simmons for Best Supporting Actor, Julianne Moore for Best Actress, and just missed for Best Actor when Eddie Redmayne took it over Michael Keaton.


Blogger ColumbusGuy said...

I suppose I'm jumping the gun here, but here's my prediction for 2016:

If you find someone who actually likes and talks about the meme of the "99 percent" and the "one percent," they will also hate mass public taste and they'll they are not like everyone else.

9:39 AM, December 31, 2015  

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