Friday, January 01, 2016

Predictions For 2016

A new year and new predictions.  If anyone else has any predictions feel free to add them in the comments section.

Domestic Politics:

Hillary Clinton will be the next President, winning the Electoral College handily.

There will be no brokered GOP convention.

The Trump factor makes my crystal ball very cloudy, but I predict Marco Rubio will get the nomination.  Further, he will choose a woman or a Midwesterner (or both) for his running mate.

President Obama will make some very controversial pardons (though this may happen in early 2017).

No Republican or Democrat who has run for the presidential nomination will run as a third-party candidate (even though there are already rumblings such a thing will happen).

The Supreme Court will decide 5-4 that states can't compel government employees to pay union dues.

The Supreme Court will decide 5-4 that the University of Texas affirmative action program is unconstitutional (and colleges will continue to ignore the Supreme Court's rulings on this issue).

The Supreme Court will strike down new regulations in Texas for abortion clinics.

There will be no new Supreme Court Justices seated in 2016.

There will be no major, organized terror attack on U.S. soil.

International Politics:

ISIS will be better contained in 2016 than in 2015.

Assad will remain firmly in power.

No significant progress will be made regarding Israeli-Palestinian relations.

Justin Trudeau will go down significantly in the polls.

The Economy:

By the end of the year the Dow will be closer to 19000 than 18000 (though a lot of this depends on the election).

By year's end employment will be slightly under 5%.

Gas prices will be significantly higher than they are now (which is about 2 bucks a gallon).


The BCS Bowl will have Alabama beating Clemson. (This prediction was made before the Cotton Bowl and the Orange Bowl.)

The Panthers will win the Super Bowl.

The Wolverines will do well, but not better than their 9-3 regular season record in 2015.

Popular Culture:

I was going to predict Star Wars: The Force Awakens will become the highest-grossing domestic film of all time, but it's hardly a prediction now.

The new Ghostbusters will not do as well as hoped.  Hail, Caesar will also be a disappointment.  Finding Dory will be huge.

Season six of Game Of Thrones--now completely off book--will be better than season five.  Jon Snow will be alive, one way or another.  By the end of the season, Arya will be back on her own, having graduated from the House Of Black And White; at least one of the Boltons will die, but Littlefinger will still be alive; Daenerys will have gotten her three dragons in order and will finally be on the way back West.

I don't remember a year where there were so few clear favorites for the Oscars.  Leonardo DiCaprio will win Best Actor for The Revenant due to all his hard work and lack of competition.  Cate Blanchett would easily win Best Actress for Carol if she didn't have two already, so Brie Larson will win. For Best Supporting Actor, no room for Spotlight or Stallone, so Mark Rylance will inch out Christian Bale. For Best Supporting Actress, if they can't vote for Blanchett they can vote for Rooney Mara.  For Best Picture Spotlight and The Big Short will fight it out (don't see The Martian as being a contender), with Spotlight being the safer pick.


Blogger ColumbusGuy said...

The Big "10" is 3-2 in bowl games thus far, with three games today. Will they break .500? Will I care?

Doing a little math, eight out of 10 teams in significant bowl games is, what, 57 percent? Does any other conference score as highly?

1:45 AM, January 01, 2016  
Blogger ColumbusGuy said...

LAGuy's ticket: Rubio-Kasich

No wonder he thinks Hillary will win handily.

2:41 AM, January 01, 2016  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bush-Walker shoots the wounded in the spring, wins the GOP nomination then loses to Hillary-Hillary by fewer votes (both electoral and general) than Mittens lost to Obama. Low turnout

No Third party but serious rumblings about one as the rabid wing of the GOP feels betrayed once again

ISIS gets weaker and compensates by more attacks against civilians in the west. Economy begins to improve. However due to Presidential election media coverage, everyone thinks things are terrible but through exhaustion, ultimately stops caring (see prediction 1).

Weather will be changeable which will brings claims both in favor of and against the existence of climate change

Dow stays relatively stable

4:40 AM, January 01, 2016  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous is quite the preemptive Obama apologist. More attacks prove ISIS is weaker, and everyone feeling the economy is terrible proves it's good.

8:19 AM, January 01, 2016  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sorry if it upsets your preferred narrative

8:55 AM, January 01, 2016  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

But what about my Game Of Thrones predictions, ColumbusGuy?

Anyway, good point, why would Republican want to run candidates who have won in the two states absolutely necessary to take the election?

If Republicans believe they've been losing because they haven't nominated a "true conservative," or that Hillary is such a flawed candidate (after all, they don't know anyone who likes her) that she's easily beatable, they may find out what a true landslide looks like.

9:13 AM, January 01, 2016  
Blogger ColumbusGuy said...

Bah. You sound like Anonymous.

9:24 AM, January 01, 2016  
Anonymous Denver Guy said...

Was traveling over New Year's, but still here to take my lumps on 2015 predictions.

1. I said SCOTUS would uphold the meaning the text of Obamacare 5/4, but instead 6/3 they ruled that the overriding purpose of the statute required defining "the State exchanges" to mean "the State or Federal exchanges." Scalia said we should rename the program SCOTUScare. 1 down. As a result, my follow-up prediction failed too - that the striking down of tax credits in Federal exchange states would give the Republicans the leverage to drastically reform Obamacare to salvage any of it.

2. I really blew the Abercrombie & Fitch case, which I said would be in favor of the store 7/2, but was in favor of the EEOC 8/1, overturning the 10th Circuit. Living in the 10th Circuit, I had heard a fair amount of discussion on this, but failed to realize the case would turn on whether Abercrombie knew or should have known the woman at issue would deserve a religious accomodation, even though she didn't ask for one. I guess it should be obvious that you can't discriminate on the basis of religion, even if the object of the discrimination doesn't complain about it. 2 Down.

3. Congress did pass a Keystone Pipeline Bill, as I predicted, and Obama vetoed it. But the Republican controlled Congress, wracked by internal dissension over Speaker Bohner's leadership, did not even try to overturn the veto (though I predicted the effort would fail). I give me 1 up for this.

4. By now I predicted Christie, Walker, Kasich and Rubio would be leaders for Rep. nomination, with Cruz lagging behind and Romney declining to run. Obviously I didn't see Trump coming, underestimated Cruz's political skills, and overestimated Walker and Kasich's skills. Still, I think I get a half point here.

5. Harry Reid announced his retirement in March of 2015 - 1 up!

6. Leftists did take power in Greece, as I predicted. It remains to be seen whether they will be leaving the EU, but the Syriza party has proved to be less dogmatic than I thought they would be, as they have ultimately submitted to a great deal of what the EU was demanding of the country re: austerity. Give myself a half point.

7. The International Criminal Court had no convictions in 2015, leaving the 2 convictions in 2012 the only accomplishments to date. The trial of Bemba from DRC (arrested in 2003) finally started last month. But I get a 1 up for this prediction (a bit of a gimme).

8. Maduro is still President of Venezuela, though it seems time may be running out. His most recent act was packing the country's Supreme Court as his party did poorly in national elections this year. I don't know if we can call him a dictator yet, which was my prediction, but if not, I'm only a few months off I fear. Give it a .5

9. Russia did not annex Eastern Ukraine, at least not yet, as predicted. I also said an autonomous State would be cretaed unde Russia's thumb, which hasn't happened yet. Another .5

10. I said Fed Funds Rate would increase to .5%. Almost - it's at .25%, just in time for the new year. But I guess that's a miss.

11. Bronco's didn't win the Superbowl. :(

12. Patriots beat the Ravens in first playoff round, but cheated as usual using a substitution trick that the league subsequently cracked down on. : (

13. Dodgers did get the NL West division title - got one!

14. Star Wars VII is the biggest blockbuster of 2015 - up 1

15. Jurassic World did not disappoint and was huge as well in 2015. Down 1

16. Walking Dead guranteed a Season 7 - another gimme.

I'm not going to add up the points. I'll put more time into my 2016 predictions - check back.

12:44 PM, January 05, 2016  
Anonymous Denver Guy said...

And now predictions:


I mostly agree with LA Guy's assessment for 2016 on legal issues. I'm distressed that LA Guy is lumping S.Ct. decisions under Domestic Polictis - how cynical we've become!

1. In Enwel v. Abbott, I believe the S.Ct. will rule either unanimously or near that to uphold proportional representation based on total population of House districts, not just citizens or eligible voters. The S.Ct has ruled on many cases about redistricting, and the issue has not come up. I think that in a representative democracy, it's clear that the Congressmen are expected to represent thge interests of everyone in their district, whether they vote or not.

2. In Zubik vs. Burwell, I think the same Hobby Lobby majority 5/4 will knock contraceptive coverage out of Obamacare for non-profits. It's really just an extension of the exception already in there for religious organizations, and since they already extended protections to closely held companies whose owners have moral objections, I don't see why they wouldn't extend it to non-profit, religiously sponsored non-profit corporations.

3. Later this year, the S.Ct will accept another challenge to Obamacare on the grounds that as a tax related bill, it should have originated in the House. That will be a decision then in 2017 (Sissel v. DHHS)


4. I'm predicting Ted Cruz to win the Republican nomination (though Marco Rubio is my back up prediction). I just think that when Trump's balloon finally pops, Cruz will be the principle beneficiary. I agree with LA Guy that the Rep. VP will be a woman, probably not Fiorina.

5. Congress will pass no significant legislation to combat Climate Change.

6. The Republicans retain control of the House and narrowly retain control of the Senate, as Michael Bennett loses the Senate seat in Colorado.

7. Sadly, I think there will be another Islamic terrorist attack in the US by year end, and loss of life will exceed 4 (one measure of "major").


8. Sadly, I think there will be an Islamic terrorist attack in Germany by year end. This will set up Andrea Merkel to lose elections (or not even run) in 2017.

9. The Islamic State will be weaker by year end, but still fighting, and Assad will still rule Syria, both thanks to Russian intervention.

10. Fidel Castro will die in 2016 (it could happen!).


11. The lack-luster recovery continues, with GDP near or below 2% for 2016.

12. The Fed raises interests rates twice, to 1%, by year end.

13. The DOW ends the year down below 17000, largely due to uncertainty over the impact of whomever wins the election.


14. Broncos (or whichever AFC team beats the Broncos) defeat the Panthers handily in the Superbowl. There is no substitute for Superbowl experience (Manning's or Brady's or Big Ben's).

15. Michael Phelps wins at least two more Olympic gold medals to pad his record count.

16. Leo DiCaprio finally gets an Oscar for the Revenant, which I probably will not have seen before the Oscars air.

10:38 AM, January 06, 2016  
Blogger LAGuy said...

Very good, Denver Guy. Though you're #4 guess for 2015 doesn't even deserve half a point.

I think the big question for 2016, which you just assume will happen, is if (and when) Trump's bubble will pop.

I agree if Bennet loses, the GOP should hold the Senate.

11:11 AM, January 07, 2016  

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