Holy S---!

Actually, it's "Holy Shit!" We haven't banned profanity on this blog, we just use it sparingly. And I think it's fitting now.

Just yesterday I wrote that Obama still has the edge. I take it back. After McCain being behind for months, things have changed. Look at the latest polls: CBS--tied, Rassmussen Tracking--tied, Zogby--McCain +3, Gallup Tracking--McCain +3, USA Today/Gallup -- McCain +4. (He's +10 in the USA Today poll of likely voters, but I don't take that seriously.)

I'm not saying this means anything, yet. It might simply be the convention's afterglow, and fade away as quickly as it came. But if it lasts for more than a week, anyone who says Obama is the favorite doesn't know what he's talking about.

For confirmation of these numbers, watch the state polls, which lag a bit. Of course, there are so many other factors, such as excitement levels and the vaunted get-out-the-vote Obama machine, that unless McCain has a consistent lead of +4 or more, I don't think I'd call him the favorite, either.