Okay, Time To Look At The Polls

I said over and over--enough so that it got annoying--that we should ignore the polls until after the conventions.

Alright, they're over, now it's time to look at the polls. And what do we see? After a bump for Obama followed by a bump for McCain, it's back to almost even. Let's say a slight edge for Obama. McCain's problem is he's never been in the high 40s, while Obama has and is. But Obama can't rest easy, since no one knows how the undecideds will fly, and no one can be sure if the Obama minions will come out. (Many Dems are saying the polls don't measure the new appeal of Obama. Too bad there's no easy way to know.)

The closeness means any gaffe could win it for the other guy. This usually leads to playing it safe, even for mavericks and agents of change. Which could make for pretty boring debates. Thank goodness we'll get Biden versus Palin.

The real question is what's the undertow. What is the secret movement underneath it all that's tugging the electorate in one direction or the other? If it's a fear that Obama isn't ready, McCain wins. If it's a need to reject the past, McCain is finished. Note the candidates both spend a lot of time trying to counteract these ideas (so much so that it may have made their speeches at their conventions a little flat).

The other thing to look at in a close race are the state polls. (Thank you internet for making this easy.) The candidates know which are the swing states, and so concentrate on them. This is why it's not hard to imagine scenarios where one loses the popular vote and wins the election. Look at McCain--he's writing off three of the five most populous states. (Which means we have blissfully few political ads here.) Like the last two elections, it might once again come down to one state--perhaps a small one in the west, for a change of pace.

A note: So the real excitement is in a handful of states. And it's not in California, Illinois, Vermont, all of New England (sorry New Hampshire, I don't care) or New York. But boy are Ohio and Michigan important. Report for duty, AnnArborGuy, and come back, ColumbusGuy.