If It's Really Close
The national polls indicate it might be a tight race. No one knows what the final numbers will be, but if they're really close*, you have to give the edge to Obama.
Why? Look at 2004. Bush beat Kerry by almost 2 and a half percent, but still only eked out an electoral victory by one close state--Ohio.** Now look at the states Bush won and the states Kerry won. Which are more likely to change color?
The Kerry states that might go to McCain in a close race are Michigan, Minnesota, Pennslyvania, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. Of these, I'd say the two best bets are Michigan and New Hampshire.
The Bush states that might go to Obama in a close race are Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada. Of these, the best bets are Iowa, Ohio and New Mexico.
The general point I'm making is more swing states are likely to move to Obama than McCain. McCain has little margin for error. He has to take almost all the states Bush took--he can only afford to lose one or maybe two non-Ohio states. On the other hand, even if Obama loses one of those Kerry states, like Michigan, he's got a solid chance of picking up two or more new states and still winning the Presidency.
* A popular vote difference of less than 1%.
**Does this mean I should up the meaning of close to 2%?
posted by LAGuy @ 12:41 AM
4 Comments:
It is hard to evaluate either candidates chance of winning at this point, precisely because the race is so close now. A close race today means anything can happen, depending on events over the next two months. This is why the Obama camp is frustrated. They thought they would be beating McCain by double digit margins, the way Clinton was beating Dole at this point in the election. This would have meant a big uphill climb for McCain, which only could be accomplished if there was a huge event that hurt Obama's chances (and october surprise or the like).
But with races so close in the states you mention, absent a big event (discovery of an affair, DUI scandal, Al Queda attack, or something like that) the ultimate outcome will be the product of a bunch of little events (including the debates). That is dangerous territory, and both campaigns will have to put a premium on making no errors for 2 months to keep everything close.
I think Vegas had Obama's chance of winning still around 65%, which is a good chance, but not overwhelming.
Obama's strategy seems to be to put a premium on making no errors, but I'm not sure if I get the same vibe from McCain.
One of the only mainstream media talking head I can stand is Chuck Todd, MSNBC's political director. He made it perfectly clear in the final days of Hillary how the electoral map doomed her. He's done a similarly great job so far showing which states McCain and Obama need to carry that are in play, and his analysis was consistent with yours, LAGuy.
Who will be McCain's Sargent Shriver?
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