Statistics

A strange editorial by Bob Beckel. First, he dismisses Sarah Palin, saying soon everyone will view her essentially as the most jaundiced Democrat does. He may be right, but he states it as fact, not conjecture.

Then he gets into demographic arguments. Now claims about excitement levels and getting out the vote make sense. If Obama can get a his main constituencies--African-Americans and the young--out in large numbers, that could put him over the top. (And their numbers might be invisible in polls, to boot.)

But Beckel instead spends too much time giving us numbers regarding how many 18 to 22 year olds in swing states can now vote who couldn't in 2004. Plus he mentions how many of McCain's main constituency, old people, are...well...dying. Trouble is, Beckel dismisses without serious argument the obvious point that everyone got 4 years older since the last election. As I've noted, this means since 2004, millions of young people got jobs, got married, even made some money--the sort of things that might move them toward McCain. And, of course, millions moved into middle or old age, which also may make them more likely to vote McCain.

Beckel, a Democrat through and through, needs to improve his arguments if he wants to be known as a rational pundit and not simply a booster.