The Five Percenters

Some people say don't look at the national polls, look at the state polls, since they determine who becomes President. Well, yes and no.

If the nationals are reasonably close, say, a lead of under 3%, then how the states play matters quite a bit. But if one candidate is up 5% or more, his opponent's odds of winning have got to be less than 1%. And that's with the guy who's concentrating his campaign on the swing states--if the 5% edge were randomly distributed, it'd be hopeless.