Is It Possible?

Color me unimpressed.

Some are pointing to some tracking polls showing a closer race than last week. While it's certainly possible there'll be some tightening in the final weeks, I don't see how there can be enough to make up for a 5% or greater difference. You'd need some major positive for McCain or negative for Obama to bridge that gap.

Plus, as I've noted before, all the factors seem to be going for Obama. The economic crisis, above all, moves support to Democrats in general. (Without it, I think we'd have a tight race.) Obama is outspending McCain 3-1 in advertising, and will be pounding home his message in all the swing states every day until November 4th. He's also got a great on-the-ground get-out-the-vote machine. And there seems to be more enthusiam in his base. (Speaking of which, I'm ignoring the "likely voters" polls since I have my doubts anyone can identify who's gonna vote this time around.)

In addition, McCain has to take almost all the swing states. If the polls were even, I'd still give Obama the edge. (And no, I don't believe in the Bradley Effect.)

The best hope McCain has this late in the race--short of some unforeseen gamechanger--is there's a surprisingly large number of Obama supporters who still feel uncertain about him. If, in the privacy of the voting booth, enough have a change of heart (or as John Murtha might claim, return to their native racism), then McCain has a shot. But I wouldn't count on it.