Advance Planning
With Saxby Chambliss's reelection, the Democrat vote alone in the Senate can't prevent a filibuster. If Norm Coleman wins, that's a little more breathing room. We'll see just how much this means next year--there are a handful of Republicans senators who regularly cross the aisle, and filibusters, after all, are not the norm.
But even if the Republicans manage to hold the line in high-profile legislation, that hardly means Democrats can't win. All they may have to do is wait. The class of 2004 is up next, and that year was a good one for Republicans, who netted 4 seats, with a number of close calls. Furthermore, two Republicans--Mel Martinez and Sam Brownback--are retiring. If the wind is still blowing Dem, picking up a couple seats should be no problem.
posted by LAGuy @ 12:30 AM
1 Comments:
Charles Krauthammer is arguing that Chambliss' win is very good for Obama.
What? you ask.
It works like this. In November, with Obama on the ballot, Chambliss led his Democratic opponent by 3 points. This Tuesday, with no Obama on the ballot, Chambliss won by 15 points. Conclusion: Obama's coattails are worth 12 points.
This gives Obama huge leverage over Congressional Democrats: do what I say, or I won't campaign for you.
(I think the weak spot in the argument is that Obama's coattails are likely to be large in states with large African-American populations, which lean strongly Democrat but typically have low turnout rates. I doubt this translates to other places. And we don't know if it will work in 2010 and 2012. Still, as long as the Democrats perceive this to be true, Krauthammer's argument holds.)
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