The Only Award Show That Matters

The Oscars are tonight.  This will be the 90th ceremony. (The Academy was actually started to fight unions, but we're long past that.)

The following are the top categories with my predictions and choices.

Best Picture:

“Call Me by Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

 

It's tricky to predict winners with so many nominees--the voting goes in so many directions it's hard to say which cancels out what.  But the two favorites are The Shape Of Water and Three Billboards, with Get Out perhaps coming through.  I'd be happy if either of those first two won, but it would be unfortunate if something as slight and silly as Get Out did.  I'd give Shape Of Water the edge.  I'd prefer to see something like I, Tonya or The Florida Project win, but they're not nominated, so I'd personally go for Three Billboards. 

Lead Actor:

Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

 

A weaker crowd than usual.  Gary Oldman is the lock of the night.  I'd vote for him, partly due to lack of competition. Sorry James Franco wasn't nominated.

Lead Actress:

Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”

Meryl Streep, "The Post"

 

A competitive category.  The only one who can't win is the one who's already won a bunch of times, Meryl Streep.  I'd say it's a fight between Frances McDormand and Sally Hawkins.  Even though McDormand has won this award before, I'd call her the favorite (because her character is edgier, and gets to talk).  If I were voting, I'd choose Margot Robbie.

 

Supporting Actor:

Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

 

It's between Willem Dafoe and Sam Rockwell.  I give the edge to Rockwell, though he may lose some votes to his co-star Woody Harrelson.  I would personally choose Dafoe.

 

Supporting Actress:

Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

 

Either Janney or Metcalf will win.  I give the edge to Janney, whose role is a more showy.  I'd probably vote for Janney (and it'll be good to see I, Tonya pick up an award).

 

Director:

"Dunkirk," Christopher Nolan

“Get Out,” Jordan Peele

"Lady Bird," Greta Gerwig
“Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro

 

Guillermo del Toro will likely win for a real director's movie.  They didn't nominate some directors I think they should have, but of this group, I'd pick del Toro as well. 

 

Adapted Screenplay:

“Call Me by Your Name,” James Ivory
“The Disaster Artist,” Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
“Logan,” Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
“Molly’s Game,” Aaron Sorkin
“Mudbound,” Virgil Williams and Dee Rees

 

I fear the very dull Call Me By Your Name is the favorite here. Of this group, I'd choose The Disaster Artist.

Original Screenplay:

“The Big Sick,” Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Martin McDonagh

 

A decent group, but as I keep noting, no I, Tonya or Florida Project, though it is good to see a nomination for The Big Sick.  It'll be a battle between Get Out, The Shape Of Water and Three Billboards.  I give the slightest edge to Three Billboards, but due to a number of reasons, it's hard to count out Get Out.  I would choose Three Billboards.

 

A few other notes.  Coco will likely win animated feature.  I'd like to see Garden Party or Negative Space win animated short, but it seems unlikely. I'd also like to see DeKalb Elementary wtake live action short, and, because it's about a school shooting, it now has a chance--which would be a stupid reason for it to win. Blade Runner 2049 will likely win for its cinematography. Dunkirk will likely win both sound awards (though Baby Driver may give it some competition). "Remember Me" from Coco is the favorite for best song (and while it isn't much, it's better than anything from The Greatest Showman.). Phantom Thread--a movie about costumes--will probably win Costume Design.