Unmoved

I wrote a few days ago that, even if you pay attention to the polls (don't until after the conventions), Obama is solidly ahead, and you shouldn't think there's any major change based on the ups and downs of general counts. Instead, if it's really tightening up, expect some toss-up states to move from Obama to McCain.

Well, a friend just told me the Rasmussen poll says Ohio is now for McCain by 10%. Ohio is THE swing state, and a McCain victory there, even if it weren't by a wide margin, would be huge. However, this is just one poll, and an outlier at that. If you see several different polls over the next few weeks giving it to McCain, then you should be impressed. Until then, nothing has changed.