Tonight Won't Be Just Any Night

With Conan forcing the issue, rumor is NBC won't wait till after the Winter Olympics to replace O'Brien with Leno. Next week may be Conan's last on the Peacock throne. Good. The sooner he's gone, the sooner he can show up elsewhere. (NBC has threatened they'll keep him off the air. I don't see it.)

About five years ago, The Tonight Show was hugely successful, making NBC tons of money. Still, there was a problem. Conan would bolt unless promised Tonight, while Jay was aging, and might become less popular, especially in the demos. So they promised Conan Jay's slot in 2009, and Jay graciously agreed to step aside. Perhaps he didn't want to be remembered as the guy who forced out Carson, blocked Letterman, and then screwed O'Brien.

Anyway, as I (and others) predicted, Leno's show was still a hit once the deal came due, and Jay--hard worker that he is--didn't feel like quitting. So NBC, worried he'd compete, offered him prime time. That's when I (and others) predicted disaster. It was even worse than I expected. Not only was Jay's show disastrous, but the simultaneous experiment of Conan on Tonight was failing too. NBC, already in fourth place among the networks, had to do something. And we're back to last week.

Last year or so, I'd hoped Jay would start a third show, to compete against Letterman and O'Brien. I figured competition would be good for them all. Now it's looking like I'll get my wish in a way I didn't expect.

PS The other big question is, assuming Jay returns to Tonight (did he want this all along, or is it a slight to him?), will he get the same numbers, or has he been tarnished by this affair.